That is, a sharp decline in commercial and industrial activity, which affects wages, employment and different areas of the economy. This was alerted on March 7, 2022 by the analyst flix1.
The appreciation of flix1 comes after the analysis of an indicator that has warned of recessions in the 20th and 21st centuries with 100% effectiveness, as described in a Medium post. This tool has detected, with a margin of 12-18 months in advance, various recession scenarios in the United States in 1980, 1982, 1990, 2001, 2008 and until 2020 with the unpredictable pandemic.
The indicator that predicted all those crises is "yield curve inversion." This data arises from the comparison of the United States Treasury bond in a term of 10 and 2 years. When the index is negative, then a recession is looming. Something that could happen again in 2023, since this calculation is currently very close to the zero line, as seen in the following graph.
The 2023 recession would be the worst in 40 years
The analyst points out that the combination of recession and high price increases brings us a negative scenario that has not been seen since the 1980s. The inflation that the United States is currently going through is the highest it has had in the last 30 years.
The high indebtedness of Western countries, whose governments have spent well beyond their means in recent years, especially in 2020 and 2021, leads us to a situation that brings together the worst of the 2012 debt crisis with the real estate crisis. and financial year 2008, stated flix1.
That is why it could be the next great global economic crisis, given that the financial problems of the United States impact the world due to its high economic activity. A situation that could be encouraged by the war that Russia started against Ukraine, with the threat of attacking any other country that turns against it.
Someone who also believes that there will be a recession in 2023 is the Argentine economist Natalia Motyl. Since November 2021 she has been warning her followers to “fasten their seat belts” because there is still more unemployment, inflation, currency devaluation, fiscal deficit and poverty to come.
He believes that the economic mess is just around the corner. For this reason, he wants the Argentine government to carry out an urgent structural reform, just as he asks the people to prepare.
From Spain, Álvaro D. María, the author of the book The philosophy of Bitcoin, also visualizes this panorama. Via Twitter, he stated this March 7: We are at the gates of a mega political and economic crisis. The cost of preparing is very low, the cost of being caught unprepared is too high.
Bitcoin, possible alternative to overcome the recession
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